The current tendency is for the chances of success of companies to deteriorate, unless they have already been badly affected by the lockdown. This is heavily dependent on two factors: the industry in question and the respective area of business activity.
In businesses selling to consumers it is hardly possible to recover lost sales. The hotel and restaurant trade, the tourism industry and clothing retailers, for example, fall into this category.
The B2B area is also severely affected, even though this is not yet visible due to government support measures such as short-time working allowance.
We are experiencing that in sectors such as mechanical engineering, the automotive industry and equipment suppliers, investments are currently being postponed.
Problems are especially prevalent for companies with a high percentage of export activity. In Europe, countries such as Italy, Spain and Great Britain are economically troubled. Worldwide, there is a massive turnover crisis: the USA and the whole of South America are badly affected. Even in China, previous levels are nowhere near being achieved again and India is still right at the beginning. It will take a long time before everything recovers.
There are some industries, however, that have not yet been affected at all. The building industry, for example, is lagging the rest of the economy as it is being propped up by sumptuously filled order books. Here, a fall in turnover and a drought in new orders are expected for 2021.