What will 2026 look like for credit management?
Rising insolvencies, geopolitical tensions, structural weaknesses – credit management will remain a challenge in 2026. Despite cautious growth forecasts, the coming year will not be a sure-fire success. Liquidity, risk transparency and close cooperation with sales will be crucial.
Insolvency figures and economic situation
Last year, insolvency figures in Germany were as high as they were in 2014. Financial losses from corporate insolvencies are also at a very high level, comparable to 2024. What does 2026 look like?
Geopolitical uncertainties
Nothing has changed in terms of the crises facing our world. The situation has probably become even more complex as a result of US activities in Venezuela. It remains to be seen how the situations in Palestine and Iran will develop.
Growth expectations for 2026
After years without growth in Germany's gross domestic product, economic institutes are expecting slight growth of between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent in 2026. We will see how this affects individual sectors.
Skills shortage and demographic change
There is a shortage of skilled workers in many areas. This can only be solved in the medium term and through qualified immigration. Added to this is the retirement of the baby boomers. Even AI will not offer a solution in many areas due to efficiency gains, e.g. in the skilled trades.
Competitiveness and structural challenges
In many industrial sectors, our products are too expensive for the international market due to wage levels and energy prices. Added to this are import tariffs, which drive up prices. Dependencies on raw materials, batteries and semiconductors cannot be reduced in the short term either. We also need to modernise our infrastructure. That takes time, too.
Bureaucracy as a burden
Complex approvals and bureaucracy are a major obstacle. Studies show that companies in Germany have hired approximately 325,000 workers in the past three years solely to deal with bureaucracy. This drives up overhead costs, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. And here it is clear that further bureaucratic hurdles are being created, particularly in the EU. Putting a stop to this is not a short-term process. It is necessary to reduce bureaucracy at federal, state and local level.
Construction industry and special funds
Only around 60 to 70 per cent of the €500 billion in special funds will be used for investment. Infrastructure construction, i.e. civil engineering, will certainly benefit from this. Although there are now more building permits in building construction than in 2023, and a building type E based on lower standards is also being discussed, there are still many local pitfalls. Prices per square metre for new buildings remain high, which makes them unattractive to investors due to return expectations. There are unlikely to be any improvements in 2026.
Industry and transformation
The automotive industry, and especially the supplier industry, will continue to undergo a transformation process. Those who can supply the defence industry will be better off.
Due to the slump in the automotive and construction sectors, the national steel trade cannot expect any significant increases in turnover either. If the customs issues for international sales can be resolved, then at least the mechanical engineering sector could recover, nationally if the future outlook is seen as more positive and better depreciation options arise. The chemical and pharmaceutical sectors will also see consolidation after the slowdown. However, covering costs in healthcare still appears to be problematic. The service sectors will support our economy.
International outlook
Internationally, supply chains will continue to be a factor. Geopolitical tensions will cause further unrest. If the Mercosur agreement is signed after all, this could open up new opportunities in South American markets.
Consequences for credit management
The 2026 financial year will certainly not be any easier than the past year. For credit management, the following continues to apply: sufficient customer liquidity is the measure of all things. Is there a positive cash flow? Are existing customers paying consistently and without incident? Where are there structural breaks? It is therefore still necessary to exercise particular caution, but also to seize opportunities together with the sales department in the current climate. This allows us to look ahead to 2026 with cautious optimism.